Cyberdefence-technology assessment (with D. Percia David, W. Lacube, S. Gillard, T. Maillart, A. Mermoud, and M. Tsesmelis)

Normalized sigmoid fits of technology adoptions

Peculiarities related to cyberdefence procurement often lead to ineffective technology acquisitions. In this work, we suggest an approach to thwart this ineffectiveness. We conduct a quantitative assessment of computer-science technologies, with the aim of gathering useful insights for the procurement of cyberdefence technologies. In this regard, we perform a bibliometric analysis on arXiv e-prints (n= 340569) related to 20 strategic cyberdefence-related technology clusters. Three essential aspects for cyberdefence procurement are explored: (i) technology-development laws, (ii) the prevalence of security considerations, and (iii) how this latter affects the opinion experts have about a cluster. Our results are threefold. First, we provide empirical evidence of a technology life-cycle law: while each cluster follows its idiosyncratic growth rate, the development of each cluster follows a similar growth curve, namely a sigmoid function. Second, we find a security-attention law: over the lifetime of most clusters, security considerations appear more frequently. This supports the hypothesis that security considerations are gaining more attention at a later stage of technology development. Third, we find an opinion law: the experts’ opinion related to each cluster is positively explained by both the security attention and the extent to which experts reach a consensus. These results open up new research avenues, which in turn could trigger new methods for managing the procurement in the cyberdefence industry.

Loïc Maréchal
Ph.D. in finance

My research interests include finance, machine learning, and natural science-originated data applied to finance.