Do economic variables forecast commodity futures volatility?

This paper explores empirically whether the supply or the demand uncertainty, the time to maturity, and the slope of the term structure (storage), explain the realized volatility of nearby commodity futures 5-minute returns. I find support for the “uncertainty resolution” and the “theory of storage” hypotheses while the “time to maturity” hypothesis is rejected. These results are robust to the inclusion of autoregressive terms in the baseline model. Next, I evaluate the in- and out-of-sample forecasting ability of models including these economic variables and find mixed results.

Three essays on commodity markets

This dissertation is constituted of three distinct chapters on commodity markets, which cover different aspects of finance. The first chapter focuses on the consequences of the financialization of commodity markets, an important topic from a regulatory perspective. Using a multivariate change-point algorithm, I statistically date when the financialization materializes, with a narrow confidence interval. Using this date as a reference point, I use panel data methods to statistically assess the impact of the financialization on commodity futures prices.