risk premium

A tale of two premiums revisited

This paper investigates the effect of the “financialization” of commodity markets in terms of pricing. I explore whether the emergence of commodity index traders affects weekly returns and turn-over during the roll periods. I split the sample (1994–2017) into the pre-financialization (1994–2003) and the post-financialization (2004–2017). I directly test whether the CIT market share (CIT/Open Interest) contributes to commodity returns and whether risk adjustments (based on momentum, basis, basis-momentum, open interest, crowding, and average factors) alter liquidity and insurance premiums documented in Kang, Rouwenhorst, and Tang (2020).

The valuation effects of index investment in commodity futures (with M. Dubois)

This paper studies the valuation effect of the SP-GSCI roll on commodity contracts. We identify a surge of investment tracking commodity futures indices in December 2003. Before 2004, the roll period generated average cumulative abnormal price changes amounting to 115 bps for the nearby contract and 146 bps for the first deferred contract. From 2004 to 2010, the average cumulative abnormal price changes of the nearby (first deferred) is equal to -60 bps (-40 bps).